Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns

Overview

Project_Bonds

Project Title : Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns.

Introduction of the Project

The 2008-09 global financial crises and 2020-21 pandemic have shown us the volatility of the market. Many people have are finding a way to invest money to secure their future. People are trying to find a secure investment with minimum financial risks with higher returns. This is also a fact that with investment their also comes with risks. There is a saying in the world of investment “Do not put all your egg in one basket”. We need to diverse portfolio in the area of investment, so that if one investment does not give you enough yields due to fluctuations in the market rates then other will give you higher yield. Bonds are one such investment people prefer the most. The Bonds we have selected are two government bonds – SGB (Sovereign Gold Bond) and IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation). The objective was to forecast the prices of SGB and IRFC bond and calculate the returns. Compare the returns and recommend the client which one to pick based on the input that is number of years to forecast.

Technologies Used

  • Python – ML model (auto_arima (for grid search to find p,q,d values), ARIMA(for forecasting values))
  • SQLite – Database
  • Flask – Front End for deployment
  • Python Libraries – numpy, pandas, Statsmodels, re, nsepy, matplotlib
  • HTML/CSS

General info

This project is simple Forecasting model. Not taxes were put into use when calculating returns. IRFC Bond is a tax free bond but SGB we need to pay taxes if we try to sell it before the maturity period is over. Inflation rate and global pandemic situation is a rare phenonmenon and it is beyond anyone's control. It has been taken into business restriction.
Data has been collected from National Stock exchange of India The two bonds selected from NSE was -

Requirement file (contains libraries and their versions)

Libraries Used

Project Architecture

alt text

Explaining Project Architecture

Live data extraction

The data collected from NSE website (historical data) and the library which is used to collect live daily data from the website is nsepy. The data is then goes to python, two things happens in python. First, out of all the attributes, we only take "Close Price" and then the daily is then converted into monthly data. We use mean to calculate the the monthly average.

Data storage in sqlite

We chose SQLite because it is very easy to use and one does not need the knowledge of sql to observe the data. the database is created locally and and is being updated when the user usses the application. the user can easliy take the database and see the data in SQL viewr online available.

Data is then used by the model

When data is then called back by the python. the python then perform differencing method to remove the trend and seasonality from the data so that our data can be stable. For successful forecasting, it is necessary to keepp the time series data to be stationary.

p,d,q Hyperparameters

We use auto_arima function to calculate p,d,q value. We use re(regex) to store the summary of auto_arima in string format. then use "re.findall()" funtion to collect the value of p,d,q values. The downpoint of using this auto_arima function is that it runs two times when the programes gets executed. It calculate the hyperparameter values for both SGB and IRFC data.

ARIMA

This part is where the data is taken and then fit & predict.
This is for 12 months. Actual Data vs Predicted Data

Model Evaluation

SGB

The RMSE: 93.27 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0185

IRFC

The RMSE: 21.62 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0139
(Pretty Good)

Forecasting (12 Months)

Forecasted Data (12 Months)

Returns

This is the part where both SGB and IRFC foecasted data is being collected and based on that returns are calculated. If the SGB returns is higher than IRFC bonds then it will tell the customer about the amount of return for a specific time period.

User Input

The user will be given 3 options as Input. The user will select a specific time period from a drop down list. The options are -

  1. 4 Months (Quaterly)
  2. 6 Months (Half yearly)
  3. 12 Months (Anually)
    This options are time pperiod to forecast. If the user press 6 then the output page will show "6" forecasted values with a range Upper Price, Forecasted Price, Lower Price for both the bonds side by side. Below there will be a text where the returns will be diplayed if the user decides to sell the bonds then.
    12 Months Forecasted Prices - forecasted_prices

Python_code

correlation matrix fig=plt.gcf() fig.set_size_inches(10,8) plt.show() heatmap(gold) heatmap(bond) ############################### Live data to Feature engineering ################################################3 ##Taking close price as our univariate variable ##For gold gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"]) gold["date"]=gold.index gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str) gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-") gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates) gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean()) ##For bond bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"]) bond["date"]=bond.index bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str) bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-") bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates) bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean()) col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.isnull().sum() col_sgb.isnull().sum() ############################ SQL connection with monthly data ################################################ ############################### SQL database is created ################################################3 # Connect to the database from sqlalchemy import create_engine engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False) col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace') df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb ) df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates) df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False) col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace') df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb) df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates) df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) ############################### SQL data to python ################################################3 # Plotting def plotting_bond(y): fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6)) ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average') ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample') ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price') ax.legend(); plotting_bond(df_sgb) plotting_bond(df_bond) #univariate analysis of Average Price df_sgb.hist(bins = 50) df_bond.hist(bins = 50) # check Stationary and adf test def test_stationarity(timeseries): #Determing rolling statistics rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean() rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std() #Plot rolling statistics: fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4)) ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price") ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean'); ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std'); plt.legend(loc='best') plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality') plt.show(block=False) print("Results of dickey fuller test") adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC') print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0])) print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1])) print('Critical values :') for k, v in adft[4].items(): print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v y: a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) else: a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) return a output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n) ">
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from pylab import rcParams
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from pmdarima.arima import auto_arima
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import math
import re
from datetime import date
import nsepy 
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
####################################          Live data extraction              ###################################################
##Extracting data from nsepy package
da=date.today()
gold= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="SGBAUG24",series="GB", start=date(2016,9,1), end=da))
bond= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="IRFC",series="N2", start=date(2012,1,1), end=da))

#############################                 Live data  extraction end                  ###############################################

# Heatmap - to check collinearity
def heatmap(x):
    plt.figure(figsize=(16,16))
    sns.heatmap(x.corr(),annot=True,cmap='Blues',linewidths=0.2) #data.corr()-->correlation matrix
    fig=plt.gcf()
    fig.set_size_inches(10,8)
    plt.show()
heatmap(gold)
heatmap(bond)
###############################                Live data to Feature engineering            ################################################3             

##Taking close price as our univariate variable
##For gold
gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"])
gold["date"]=gold.index
gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str)
gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-")
gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates)
gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean())

##For bond
bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"])
bond["date"]=bond.index
bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str)
bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-")
bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates)
bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean())

col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"]
col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"]

col_bond.isnull().sum()
col_sgb.isnull().sum()

############################                  SQL connection with monthly data           ################################################ 
###############################                SQL database is created                  ################################################3             

# Connect to the database
from sqlalchemy import create_engine
engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False)
col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace')
df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb )

df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates)
df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)


engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False)
col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace')
df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb)

df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates)
df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
###############################                SQL data to python                 ################################################3             



# Plotting
def plotting_bond(y):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6))
    ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average')
    ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample')
    ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price')
    ax.legend();
plotting_bond(df_sgb)
plotting_bond(df_bond)

#univariate analysis of Average Price
df_sgb.hist(bins = 50)
df_bond.hist(bins = 50)

# check Stationary and adf test
def test_stationarity(timeseries):
    #Determing rolling statistics
    rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean()
    rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std()
    #Plot rolling statistics:
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4))
    ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price")
    ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean');
    ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std');
    plt.legend(loc='best')
    plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality')
    plt.show(block=False)
    
    print("Results of dickey fuller test")
    adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC')
    print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0]))
    print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1]))
    print('Critical values :')
    for k, v in adft[4].items():
        print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v
    
      y:
        a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    else:
        a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    return a
output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n)

    

Home Page (Used HTML and CSS)

home

Predict Page

predict

Output Page

output

Project Completed --

Owner
Tishya S
Data Science aspirant
Tishya S
easyNeuron is a simple way to create powerful machine learning models, analyze data and research cutting-edge AI.

easyNeuron is a simple way to create powerful machine learning models, analyze data and research cutting-edge AI.

Neuron AI 5 Jun 18, 2022
AutoTabular automates machine learning tasks enabling you to easily achieve strong predictive performance in your applications.

AutoTabular AutoTabular automates machine learning tasks enabling you to easily achieve strong predictive performance in your applications. With just

wenqi 2 Jun 26, 2022
AtsPy: Automated Time Series Models in Python (by @firmai)

Automated Time Series Models in Python (AtsPy) SSRN Report Easily develop state of the art time series models to forecast univariate data series. Simp

Derek Snow 465 Jan 02, 2023
Pydantic based mock data generation

This library offers powerful mock data generation capabilities for pydantic based models. It can also be used with other libraries that use pydantic as a foundation, for example SQLModel, Beanie and

Na'aman Hirschfeld 396 Dec 28, 2022
Apple-voice-recognition - Machine Learning

Apple-voice-recognition Machine Learning How does Siri work? Siri is based on large-scale Machine Learning systems that employ many aspects of data sc

Harshith VH 1 Oct 22, 2021
ETNA – time series forecasting framework

ETNA Time Series Library Predict your time series the easiest way Homepage | Documentation | Tutorials | Contribution Guide | Release Notes ETNA is an

Tinkoff.AI 675 Jan 08, 2023
Self Organising Map (SOM) for clustering of atomistic samples through unsupervised learning.

Self Organising Map for Clustering of Atomistic Samples - V2 Description Self Organising Map (also known as Kohonen Network) implemented in Python for

Franco Aquistapace 0 Nov 16, 2021
Open-Source CI/CD platform for ML teams. Deliver ML products, better & faster. ⚡️🧑‍🔧

Deliver ML products, better & faster Giskard is an Open-Source CI/CD platform for ML teams. Inspect ML models visually from your Python notebook 📗 Re

Giskard 335 Jan 04, 2023
🚪✊Knock Knock: Get notified when your training ends with only two additional lines of code

Knock Knock A small library to get a notification when your training is complete or when it crashes during the process with two additional lines of co

Hugging Face 2.5k Jan 07, 2023
MosaicML Composer contains a library of methods, and ways to compose them together for more efficient ML training

MosaicML Composer MosaicML Composer contains a library of methods, and ways to compose them together for more efficient ML training. We aim to ease th

MosaicML 2.8k Jan 06, 2023
使用数学和计算机知识投机倒把

偷鸡不成项目集锦 坦率地讲,涉及金融市场的好策略如果公开,必然导致使用的人多,最后策略变差。所以这个仓库只收集我目前失败了的案例。 加密货币组合套利 中国体育彩票预测 我赚不上钱的项目,也许可以帮助更有能力的人去赚钱。

Roy 28 Dec 29, 2022
Send rockets to Mars with artificial intelligence(Genetic algorithm) in python.

Send Rockets To Mars With AI Send rockets to Mars with artificial intelligence(Genetic algorithm) in python. Tools Python 3 EasyDraw How to Play Insta

Mohammad Dori 3 Jul 15, 2022
Simple and flexible ML workflow engine.

This is a simple and flexible ML workflow engine. It helps to orchestrate events across a set of microservices and create executable flow to handle requests. Engine is designed to be configurable wit

Katana ML 295 Jan 06, 2023
Azure Cloud Advocates at Microsoft are pleased to offer a 12-week, 24-lesson curriculum all about Machine Learning

Azure Cloud Advocates at Microsoft are pleased to offer a 12-week, 24-lesson curriculum all about Machine Learning

Microsoft 43.4k Jan 04, 2023
Simulate & classify transient absorption spectroscopy (TAS) spectral features for bulk semiconducting materials (Post-DFT)

PyTASER PyTASER is a Python (3.9+) library and set of command-line tools for classifying spectral features in bulk materials, post-DFT. The goal of th

Materials Design Group 4 Dec 27, 2022
inding a method to objectively quantify skill versus chance in games, using reinforcement learning

Skill-vs-chance-games-analysis - Finding a method to objectively quantify skill versus chance in games, using reinforcement learning

Marcus Chiam 4 Nov 19, 2022
Machine-learning-dell - Repositório com as atividades desenvolvidas no curso de Machine Learning

📚 Descrição Neste curso da Dell aprofundamos nossos conhecimentos em Machine Learning. 🖥️ Aulas (Em curso) 1.1 - Python aplicado a Data Science 1.2

Claudia dos Anjos 1 Jan 05, 2022
A toolbox to iNNvestigate neural networks' predictions!

iNNvestigate neural networks! Table of contents Introduction Installation Usage and Examples More documentation Contributing Releases Introduction In

Maximilian Alber 1.1k Jan 05, 2023
LibTraffic is a unified, flexible and comprehensive traffic prediction library based on PyTorch

LibTraffic is a unified, flexible and comprehensive traffic prediction library, which provides researchers with a credibly experimental tool and a convenient development framework. Our library is imp

432 Jan 05, 2023
A visual dataflow programming language for sklearn

Persimmon What is it? Persimmon is a visual dataflow language for creating sklearn pipelines. It represents functions as blocks, inputs and outputs ar

Álvaro Bermejo 194 Jan 04, 2023